By Simon Hukin:
A disclaimer before I begin: writing at four in the morning after having had a few is probably not the wisest of ideas, yet reviewing the vote count (yes, sad, I know) has compelled me to do something to take my mind off the twin horrors of the possibility of losing government and the prospect of having to wake up in three hours.
The likely Labor loss in Hasluck is, in all respects except the numbers in the House, not a Liberal gain. The primary vote for the Liberals was, indeed, higher than that of Labor, but they still suffered a swing against them. The combined swing in primary vote against Liberal and Labor is almost entirely represented in the increased Greens primary vote, with the rest being distributed among the minor parties and independent. To me this indicates, rather than a surge of support for the Greens, a large number of protest votes – as the reduction in Liberal primary vote seems to demonstrate the desire of voters to find a credible alternative (perhaps any alternative) to the big two. What we’re seeing is a macrocosmic pattern of dissatisfaction nationally neatly summarizes in the microcosm of Hasluck. If any party deserves to win the seat, it is probably the Greens, with their vastly increased primary vote – totaling a whopping 12.35%, something the Greens have never before seen in any WA seat except the urban Curtin, Perth, Swan, and Fremantle (the only seats in the State where they have ever broken double figures, and even then only at the 2007 election, perhaps as a result of the prevalent anti-Howard sentiment).
Going through the WA seats, we see the Greens vote break double figures in every seat except Durack, Canning, and O’Connor, and even there they increased their margins – in Durack by 3.17%, O’Connor by 1.47%, and Canning by 0.17%. These smaller figures are, in the cases of O’Connor and Canning, most likely caused by the heated contest between two favoured non-Greens candidates with strong personal brands. In O’Connor, this was between the inimitable, inimical, (yet, strangely and possibly sadly unseated) Wilson Tuckey and the highly respected Nationals candidate Tony Crook, and in Canning the sitting Liberal MP Don Randall (who was awarded the accolade by an internal Liberal party survey of running the most efficient electorate office in the country, and who is, according to Young Liberal volunteers, out in the electorate at least once a week), and the former Member for Armadale, Minister for Infrastructure in the State Government and excellent all-rounder Alannah MacTiernan.
Since the election night commentators – expert and otherwise – have been declaring this election a shift in the political landscape. I’m not sure they understand how right they are. Their comments are, for the large part, focused on the idea of a hung parliament, with a minority government, and to a lesser extent on the Greens holding the balance of power in the Senate. For me, the shift is much deeper. The nation has declared that it is ready not only for a change in the way we handle politics (less of the infighting, backstabbing, powerbrokering, and generally childish bickering, for a start), but also for a shift in ideological focus. This upswell in Greens primary vote can be seen in every state, and almost every seat, around the country. It is, of course, signaled most strongly by the election of Adam Bandt in Melbourne, and the likely election of ‘Green Independent’ Andrew Wilkie in Denison. But they alone can not be the focus.
Of the national primary vote, the Greens took 11.3% – the first time they have ever reached double figures in those stakes and a swing of a strong 3.62% toward them. Compared to the paltry 1.11% toward the Liberal party and the schemozzle that is the -4.90% against the ALP, the Greens have demonstrated themselves to be a truly national force – far superior to the Nationals and their anemic 3.86%. However, unlike the Nationals’, the appeal of the Greens is universal.
This has, traditionally, been their greatest problem. Rather than having centralised support in three or four seats around the country (as the Nationals have, thanks to their agricultural roots and rural focus), they find themselves appealing to anybody who values environmental concerns and progressive social policy. This puts them a) in direct competition with the ALP – traditional holders of the left flank, and b) at a great disadvantage when it comes to taking seats in areas more interested in their hip pockets than global warming. They don’t understand the aspirational voter, nor can they condone them politically. Their support swells in high income, urban areas, where concerns run beyond the kids, the car, and the mortgage, but they are inherently unsuited to campaigning in areas like Western Sydney, regional Queensland, and Canberra’s satellite suburbs.
Yet they continue to grow. Slowly and surely they are whittling away the support of the major parties, gaining credibility and changing their party so that it can accept those who think the good life will come when they have another car or have finished tiling the bathroom. They are developing (or rather, have developed) a comprehensive agenda. They are at pains to demonstrate their competence and reliability now they hold the balance of power in the Senate and tremendous sway in the House. If they emerge as a real contender for the votes of those to the left of the political spectrum we may come to see a time when we have a right party (presently the right of the Liberals and the Nationals), a centrist party (the Liberal wets, such a Malcolm Turnbull, who are so obviously disenchanted by the party as it stands, and the right and moderate member of the ALP), and a force on the left composed of the Greens, the left Labor factions, and the ragtag band of socialist alternatives, resistances, alliances, fronts, communes, and rebellions we see peppered around the place (mostly in posters on university campuses) from time to time.
It seems that they will, inevitably, become the third power of Australian politics. Whether this is a good thing or a bad one, I cannot say. However, it will certainly be interesting to see how things unfold.
Share on FacebookSimon Hukin is a student at the Australian National University, General Secretary of the Western Australian Secondary Students’ Association, peripatetic music teacher and general curmudgeon. He is heavily involved in politics and the union movement.
