By Rich Bowden:

While the concept of peak water as an overarching term for the increased shortage of water supplies in Asia remains contentious, it has served to focus attention on the increasing water crisis facing many countries due, in part, to continuing over extraction of the precious resource.

As a combination of climate change, burgeoning population growth, pollution and increased industrial and agricultural capacity serve to place further stress on already stretched water resources, there is a lively academic discussion over whether or not we have have indeed passed a “tipping point” in the consumption of water (peak water) in the same way many experts believe we have for that other precious resource, oil (peak oil)?

According to figures released by the World Resources Institute’s, EarthTrends database and supplied by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), renewable water resources in Asia (excluding the Middle East) average slightly more than 4,000 cubic meters per year, which compares with a global average of 8,500 cubic meters per year. The extremely water poor Middle East has only around 1,500 m3/ca/year, with sub-Saharan Africa region around 6,300 m3/ca/year and South America almost 50,000 m3/ca/year.

While a rise in global temperatures is threatening further water stress in future decades, the ADB has said that, “To date, factors other than climate change are most likely responsible for observed patterns of water scarcity.”

“Likewise, over the next few decades, changes in the drivers of demand for water, including population growth, changes in dietary patterns and patterns of urbanization and economic development are likely to have greater impacts on relative regional water scarcity than increasing temperatures, said Arjun Thapan, Special Senior Advisor (Infrastructure and Water) for the Office of the President at the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

Population pressures, with agricultural irrigation and increased industrial use of water supplies have combined to put an upward trend on water use in many areas of Asia and the over extraction of groundwater in relation to recharge rates has already passed recognised tipping points.

“One way in which many regions in Asia have encountered or exceeded peak water (as defined) is in groundwater use. Many heavily populated regions, including the Gangetic Plain in India and the North China Plain, currently utilize groundwater at rates greatly exceeding long-term recharge, and in this sense have already passed peak water,” Thapan said.

Peak water is defined, not as the running out of fresh water, but where water demanded is higher than the rate at which the supply is replenished. In an publication entitled World’s Water 2008-2009 written by the Pacific Institute’s Peter Gleick and co-author Meena Palaniappan, the author’s discuss the phenomenon. They describe it as “peak ecological water” — where over extraction of water resources has resulted in the overtaxing of the planet’s ability to absorb the consequences of our water use — and use China as an potent example.

“China has developed a set of water quality and quantity problems as severe as any on the planet,” said Gleick. “Rivers and lakes are dead and dying, groundwater aquifers are over-pumped, uncounted species of aquatic life have been driven to extinction, and direct adverse impacts on both human and ecosystem health are widespread and growing.”

Problems With Definition of ‘Peak Water’

However as Arjun Thapan told EcoSeed, “…there is no widely agreed-upon definition for the term ‘peak water,’ and in fact the topic is controversial ” adding that certain assumptions made about global supply of a finite resource such as oil, cannot be made about an “…analysis of water resources, which are not subject to depletion in the same sense as oil.”

“…the concept of peak water is constructed by analogy to the more widely discussed and documented concept of ‘peak oil,’” he said, adding that “Water, unlike oil, is not a finite resource, at least when viewed from the perspective of a given location such as a river basin.”

“Unlike oil, which is a stock resource, water has characteristics of both stock and flow resources,” he continued. “For example, soil moisture, river discharge, groundwater and continental ice masses are all subject to replenishment, although at very different timescales,” though qualified this with the observation that “…some types of fossil groundwater may not be subject to recharge at timescales meaningful to human society, and are effectively stock resources.”

Dr. Håkan Tropp, Project Director of the UNDP Water Governance Facility, at the Stockholm International Water Institute (SIWI) is another expert with reservations about the concept of peak water and contends that Asia, when taken as a region, can not be considered as water scarce.

“There are of course areas in Asia where water is scarce (Turkmenistan, parts of India etc) but there are also other areas (for example Mekong countries, Bangladesh etc) where there are ample water resources (and where flooding is a recurring problem),” said Dr Tropp to EcoSeed in an email.

However Dr Tropp acknowledges that despite his own concerns with the linking of the term “peak water” to a non finite resource, he agrees it has its usefulness in shedding light on the very real problems of over extraction of water sources.

“… if the concept can put more light on the issue of water use being bigger than replenishment I guess it is a good thing,” he said. “Population growth in India, China etc along with changing consumption patterns (leading to more water pollution, more water intense foods, and other products) is an issue of grave concern and something that needs to be dealt with now! The economies of India and China are very dynamic and this will put added pressure on water resources.”

Focus on Shortages

As Dr Tropp points out, even if the term “peak water” isn’t accepted as being completely realistic in describing the outstripping of demand over supply, it serves to describe adequately the consequences for Asian governments seeking to balance steady economic growth with the water supply needs of their growing populations. The concept has particular usefulness in those countries, such as India and China,  where stock water resources such as fossil groundwater is being extracted at dangerous levels.

Maude Barlow, author, UN advisor on water issues and co-founder of the water advocacy group the Blue Planet Project, told EcoSeed that over extraction of water through technologically advanced bore well pumps in countries such as India remained “…a very big part of the [over extraction] equation.”

“India alone has something like 23 million bore wells going 24/7 and is mining groundwater in a way not possible technologically fifty years ago using bore well technology that was designed for oil extraction,” said Ms Barlow. “Water is being mined for inefficient food production and to provide water for big cities which usually dump it in the ocean once they have used it.”

She said humanity’s “displacement and abuse” of water were the key issues, adding she believed these were as much an underlying cause of climate change as greenhouse gas emissions.

“Slovakian hydrologist Michal Kravcik says that every year, 700 trillion litres of land based water is pumped out of the ground and dumped into oceans after use, destroying vast amounts of water and drying up the land left behind. I believe our displacement and abuse of water from where it is needed for the healthy functioning of the hydrologic cycle is at least as great a cause of climate change as greenhouse gas emissions,” she added.

The predictions for the future of countries such as India and Pakistan, are dire, said Ms Barlow.

“India and Pakistan are in crisis soon I fear, with cities like Mumbai running out of water and thousands of villages going dry,” said Ms Barlow. “Pakistan depends on the Indus River which depends on melting snow from the Himalayas. As it is 55 million Pakistanis lack access to clean water but the predictions are dire for the future.”

This is Part One of a two-part series originally published by environmental news portal EcoSeed.

Tags: adb water, asian water crisis, ecoseed, maude barlow, peak water, rich bowden, world reources institute