By Simon Hukin:
This is the weirdest election…
It looks to have fallen pretty much on state lines, with Victoria and Tasmania ALP whitewashes, New South Wales and Queensland Liberal gains, Western Australia tending strongly Liberal, and SA largely unchanged though edging Liberal, but there are far too many anomalies – there’s nothing that could ever be thought to be called a uniform swing, except in Victoria, which is about 1% 2PP for the ALP.
Notable examples of weirdness include:
SA:
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-182.htm – Small swing toward the ALP in Boothby, making it a key marginal for the next election.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-185.htm – A very small swing toward the ALP, keeping the ALP margin strong.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-187.htm – A moderate swing to the sitting ALP member, Tony Zappia, who has built himself a great reputation.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-189.htm – Another small swing to the ALP, in one of our safest seats in the country. Held by Mark Butler.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-191.htm – A large swing to the ALP’s sitting member, Nick Champion.
Vic:
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-201.htm – A tiny swing against Labor. I’d put it down to the Rudd bounce bubble bursting.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-205.htm – Once again, a less than 1% swing against Labor.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-207.htm – Corangamite’s an interesting one. It was a key marginal in this campaign, retained (at least, until postal and pre-poll votes are counted) by the ALP, with a tiny swing against them. Considering the resources the Liberals threw at this campaign it alone provides evidence enough of the grip the ALP has on Victoria.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-224.htm – A swing to The Nationals’ John Forrest, once again thanks to his personal brand.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-228.htm – The Greens picking up Melbourne, after the sad loss of @Lindsay Tanner. He will be missed.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-229.htm – A swing, though not unexpected, to Liberal Kevin Andrews in, the aptly named, Menzies.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-231.htm – Another personal brand swing of a couple of percent to the Libs for Sharman Stone, though gods know why.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-213.htm – A very interesting swing away from the Labor party toward incumbent National MP Darren Chester. This was dubbed the clash of the Dazzas, as both core candidates are named Darren.
NSW:
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-110.htm – A small swing toward Greg Combet in Charlton. It’s an excellent result, build largely on the back of Combet’s personal brand and his tireless local organisation.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-115.htm – An interesting one – a decent swing of almost 1.5% in favour of Labor. Whether this is due to a lacklustre campaign on the part of the Liberals, or an excellent one on the part of Craig Thomson, the seat is now quite safe Labor.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-117.htm – A very good swing to @Mike Kelly in this bellwether, considering its famous fractious nature. Hopefully it’s motto of ‘the decider of government’ remains true.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-135.htm – A small swing away from Independent Tony Windsor ( who will – with Katter, Oakshotte, Bandt, and possibly Wilkie – hold the balance of power) to The Nationals’ candidate.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-138.htm – A very unusual swing toward Labor’s little known Janelle Saffin, who has done fine work, and whose campaign against Liberal Kevin Hogan was highly effective.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-146.htm – Another small swing to the ALP, making Robertson – one of the most hotly contested seats in the country – slightly less marginal.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-151.htm – This is interesting not because the swing is contrary to the trend, but because it isn’t as much as I would have expected. Abbott only picked up four points – I would have expected his brand to sky rocket him into the 70% zones, but he’s hovering around 63%.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-152.htm – Wow, is all I can say. Turnbull picks up an 11 – 12 point swing. Once again, not unexpected, yet still quite impressive.
WA:
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-236.htm – The swing in Canning of about 3.5% is, while not enough to get @Alannah MacTiernan over the line, a fantastic result for the ALP in WA – turning Canning into a real marginal seat. It is a great tribute to her and her team that they’ve managed to pull this off, especially given the very limited resources available to her campaign. Hopefully she decides to run again in the next election.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-243.htm – The Weirdest of them all – “Iron Bar” Wilson, the Mad Uncle of Australian politics, loses his seat to Nationals candidate Tony Crook in a landslide. Well done Tony. Though Wilson’s hilarious and ludicrous antics will, I’m sure, be missed.
QLD:
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-177.htm – Not an unusual swing, simply a truly weird contest. Michael Johnson, the former MP for Ryan and opposition whip, running as an independent lost the seat to the LNP candidate. He was forced to quit the LNP during their merger by Liberal power brokers.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Johnson_%28politician%29 for more information.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-161.htm – A tiny, tiny swing to the ALP here. Chris Cummins ran a very intensive campaign to achieve this small result.
NT:
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-307.htm – The loss of the second NT seat (Solomon) is disappointing for Labor, though not unusual – the party only gained it for the first time thanks to the Rudd bounce at the 2007 election. What makes it odd is the swing to Labor in the other Northern Territory seat Lingiari.
Tas:
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-194.htm – Denison, in terms of oddness, is in the top three. There’s been much talk about it going to Andrew Wilkie, an independent, and it’s certainly still in doubt. I’m personally tipping Jackson to win, as I reckon the Libs will come in second.
This article was first published on Simon’s facebook page.
Share on FacebookSimon Hukin is a student at the Australian National University, General Secretary of the Western Australian Secondary Students’ Association, peripatetic music teacher and general curmudgeon. He is heavily involved in politics and the union movement.
