By Rich Bowden:
An integrated water management system, though essential to protect developing nations facing climate change, is but one part of a wider “climate proofing” system, a report released by the UK-based sustainable development NGO Forum for the Future has said.
Released last month, the study “The Future Climate for Development: Scenarios for Low-Income Countries in a Climate-Changing World,” which will have consequences for less-developed Asian and Pacific countries, details how successful development and addressing climate change are inextricably linked in low income countries. The study uses four scenarios to demonstrate the “challenges and opportunities” they face.
Commissioned by the UK Government’s Department for International Development (DFID), the study has been released with the aim of promoting a holistic approach to development in the face of such changes. Echoing water experts concern over the increase in water stress throughout the developing world, the executive summary states that vulnerable countries should expect, and plan for, change brought about by global warming, with efficient management of water resources a major developmental priority.
“As our climate changes over the next 20 years, the probability is very high that temperatures will rise, the frequency of storms will increase and rainfall patterns will shift. Ecosystems will be disrupted, ice caps and glaciers will continue to melt and sea levels will rise,” said the report.
The authors added that the study, which draws on the opinions of over 100 development experts from around the world, contains “…a ‘horizon scan’, which examines key issues that will affect low-income countries over the next 20 years, and four scenarios, which explore how these issues may play out in different ways, highlighting the challenges and opportunities low-income countries may face in a climate-changing world.”
It added that the horizon scan and scenarios had been developed to: “…‘future-proof’ current strategies and prioritise areas for work; generate new ideas for future strategy or policy; look for opportunities for collaborative working; create a vision of a preferred future.”
One of the four scenarios outlined in the report details where regional competition over scarce resources, including water, forces countries to abandon tendencies to horde resources in favor of cooperation in a form of regional bloc.
Describing the advantages of such a collaborative rather than confrontational approach to management of water supplies, the report quotes Faisal Islam, Environment and Livelihoods Advisor at DFID Bangladesh, as saying the growth of such self-reliant trading communities should be encouraged, to prevent conflict over dwindling water supplies.
“The scope for regional solutions will need to be explored much more over the next 20 years,” he said. “The South Asia Water Initiative promotes dialogue but more is needed, for example, with watershed management and possible new storage in Nepal and Bhutan. The South Asia region is already reasonably connected but more regional cooperation may be needed to address some of the connected energy, water, flood and food issues.”
Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk at the International Institute for Strategic Studies warned that the threat of water wars between states was very real if such a regional water management policy was to fail.
“Climate change impacts will be greatest in areas where conflict is already most common –
the ‘zone of conflict’ stretching from Africa across the Middle East into South Asia,” he said in the report. “There is a possibility of managing down the risks but this will be difficult. We could see the return of inter-state conflict, particularly over water resources.”
However Forum for the Future sources told OOSKAnews that moves towards developing “…an integrated, future-proofed water management system,” though a key factor in future proofing against climate changes in vulnerable countries, may not be enough and needed to be considered alongside a wider integrated “climate proof” economic system.
“That is really one of the key lessons from the scenarios – thinking about any systems in isolation doesn’t really build climate resilience,” said the NGO team in an email. “You could have a brilliant water system in place and still run into trouble because the local economy is producing goods that are no longer fit-for-purpose; or because a neighbor dams a river that your ‘efficient water system’ takes for granted; or because the energy costs of your desalination/water purification plant become absurd.”
“…To have an effective water management system you have to think about broader regional social-economic and physical impacts too. The ‘solution’ is to climate-proof the entire economy.”
“Water management is critical – but just one piece of the broader puzzle,” said the team.
Originally published in OOSKAnews.
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