By Simon Hukin:
As part of theangle’s election coverage of marginal seats, Simon Hukin gives us an extensive overview of the WA seat of Canning including the main issues confronting the candidates and the most likely outcome.
Geography and Distribution
Canning covers an area of approximately 6 178 sq km from the south-east metropolitan areas of Perth to the adjoining rural areas in the east and south, including the Shires of Serpentine-Jarrahdale, Murray and Waroona. The main suburbs include Armadale, Mandurah, Kelmscott, Roleystone, Westfield and Wungong. Other localities include Byford, Cardup, Dwellingup, Forrestdale, Halls Head, Jarrahdale, Mundijong, North Dandalup, Oakford, Pinjarra, Ravenswood, Serpentine, Waroona and Yunderup.
The seat carries some heavy and light industry, bauxite mining, stone and citrus fruits, beef and dairy farming, market gardens and forestry.
History
The history of the Western Australian outer metropolitan seat of Canning is an interesting one. The electorate has been fickle in recent years, though began life as a Liberal/Country Party stronghold. However, thanks to a number of boundary redraws and the growth of Perth’s outer-metropolitan regions – especially the suburbs of Armadale and Canning – it was a Labor electorate from 1983 to the first victory of the Howard government in 1996, since when it has been traded between the major parties at almost every election. Liberal Ricky Johnston was defeated in 1998, as was her successor, the ALP’s Jane Gerick in 2001. Gerick battled leukaemia during her term in Parliament, but was unable to overcome a redistribution ahead of the 2001 election and was defeated by current Liberal MP Don Randall. Gerick had been re-endorsed as the Labor candidate for 2004, but died of a sudden brain haemorrhage at the end of 2003. Her replacement Cimlie Bowden lasted until mid-August when rumours of her dumping began to circulate. Her pre-selection was re-affirmed by the Labor Party on the same night she announced her resignation as candidate, accusing the party of having undermined her campaign. Labor turned to a former state MP for the area in Kay Hallahan, but after this chopping and changing, the 2004 election turned into a walkover for Don Randall. He turned his highly marginal seat into a safe seat in one swoop, achieving a 9.2 per cent swing, easily the largest in the country. However, in the subsequent 2007 election his margin was cut to 5.6 per cent, and this was further reduced by redistribution.
The 2009 electoral boundary redistribution in WA saw the Liberal Party’s margin fall from a notional 5.6 per cent to 4.3 per cent, thanks to the seat gaining areas of Mandurah with lower socio-economic status from Brand and areas of Boddington from Pierce, and the loss of the newer housing estates around Canning Vale and Southern River to neighbouring Tangney and Hasluck.
The Race
The race this year is between the Liberal incumbent Don Randall and the ALP candidate Alannah MacTiernan. Randall has held the seat for three terms in the face of both lacklustre campaigns and unknown candidates on behalf of the ALP. However, this year’s election is set to be a very different thing.
MacTiernan, a lawyer and former Minister in the Gallup and Carpenter governments and Shadow Minister in the Ripper opposition at a State level, is something of a hero to her electorate of Armadale – which comprises 41 per cent of the population of the seat of Canning. Her achievements as Minister for Infrastructure include the new, and long demanded, Perth to Mandurah train line (which runs smack-bang through the City of Mandurah – comprising 34 per cent of Canning), and a Perth to Bunbury highway. She has also cultivated a strong brand and, judging by both polling and door knocking in the district, has a devoted following in many of the most populous areas of her intended seat.
The most recent Westpoll (sampling 1650 respondents in 4 key marginal electorates) seems to suggest a narrow victory for Labor thanks, largely, to women voters. An astonishing 58 per cent of women voters claim they will vote for Ms MacTiernan on the 21st of August, putting the ALP at a significant two party-preferred advantage (taking preference flows as 2007) of 54 per cent to the Liberal Party’s 46 per cent. To take advantage of the redistribution Ms MacTiernan has established her campaign office in Mandurah – taking with her many of the highly experienced staff from her State electorate office, which was based in Kelmscott.
Randall, an ex-teacher, has kept rather a low profile in Federal politics, apart from a rather ribald attack on Cheryl Kernot in his first term (in 1996, when he was in the seat of Swan) – saying amongst other allegations, that she had “the morals of an alley cat.” Since winning preselection for Canning, he has sat on a number of committees and is now Shadow Parliamentary Secretary for Roads and Transport. According to sources inside the Liberal party, an internal party survey named Randall’s electorate office in Kelmscott is one of the most efficient in the Federal Parliamentary Party, and the rapport he has developed with various parts of his electorate is certainly strong.
The campaign has already been a little dirty – a great deal of controversy surrounds the billboard erected by Don Randall’s office on a freeway overpass, which apparently contravened Council bylaws and electoral regulations. However, both candidates have a strong positive image in the electorate, and are campaigning fiercely.
The Issues
- Asylum Seekers
The issue of immigration and asylum claims looms large in Canning – especially in the more affluent areas of central Mandurah and Armadale. Whether either party’s policy will meet the electorate’s demands remains to be seen, but the consensus view seems to be that there needs to be action taken to ‘stem the tide’.
- Mining Tax
The Rudd government’s proposed Resources Super Profits Tax disturbed a great many voters of Canning, especially those involved with the ALCOA bauxite mine, situated within its bounds. However, given Gillard’s fast and skilful negotiations with the major miners these fears seem to have been largely allayed, and the electorate seems largely in favour of the new Mineral Resources Rent Tax.
- Local Schools
Much concern has been raised by voters over the state of schools in the region, both public and private. Armadale Senior High School, for example, consistently scores in the lowest echelons of the league tables. Education, and indigenous education in particular, is one of the foci of the ALPs campaign in the electorate.
Call
Given the recent surge in Ms MacTiernan’s popularity, the new leadership of the ALP, and the efficient manner with which the problems of the Resources Super Profits Tax have been dispatched, Canning is a likely close Labor victory.
Share on FacebookSimon Hukin is a student at the Australian National University, General Secretary of the Western Australian Secondary Students’ Association, peripatetic music teacher and general curmudgeon. He is heavily involved in politics and the union movement.
