By Alex Schlotzer:

It’s been some time since we’ve seen Labor in government and last week’s removal of Kevin Rudd as leader revealed their inexperience and unhealthy obsession with opinion polls.  The events of the past week were an interesting look at Labor in government after more than a decade in Opposition. It revealed things about the so-called new- look ALP that illustrate it’s more-or-less the same old party. More fundamentally it’s revealed how the Labor Party was spooked by a few bad polls and bile dredged up by The Australian.

As those more knowledgeable about poll numbers suggest, the government was already in a winning position albeit with a reduced majority. Besides which no strong case has been made for axeing Rudd, something clearly illustrated in
interviews with Nicola Roxon and Chris Bowen on Lateline. However we can’t dwell on the likely back-room manoeuvring of the Labor Party or how the factions lined up other than what’s already on record. The job has been done.

But what of the future fortunes for the Labor Party?

Early polls appear to justify the jettisoning of the Rudd experiment in favour of a Gillard government with the Labor Party back in a commanding — read election-winning — position. Our new prime minister also clearly leads the Opposition’s Tony Abbott as preferred PM.

However as many have already suggested, the poll bounce won’t last forever or even for very long. It is still early days with much still to celebrate as our new PM is a woman; the first woman to ever be Prime Minister of Australia. But there are many challenges facing the new look leadership team, perhaps the biggest is to get the timing right on when to call the next election.

Calling a poll too quickly will look opportunistic and would give the perception that Rudd’s demise was all about the polls and nothing to do with working in the best interests of the nation. But then poll momentum could be lost in waiting too long to call an election. There are still some other big challenges, true, but with the highly favourable poll bounce, the time is right to deal with a few of the big challenges. Unlike most commentators I don’t think the Resource Super Profits Tax (RSPT) is that big a concern for the government with lots of ordinary folk thinking it a good idea. It has great appeal outside of mining communities in Queensland and Western Australia.

Gillard has already cleverly neutralised the issue by taking government advertisements promoting the new tax of the air and winning a concession from the mining industry to do the same. The move has taken the wind out of the sails of the Opposition who used the tax to attack the Government alleged “great big fat tax” policies.

Wider challenges for the Gillard Government include winning back credibility on climate change, Rudd’s “greatest moral challenge of our time,” and confronting an Opposition with few policies of their own, though running a successful fear campaign based on “dog-whistle” policies, primarily on ‘boat people’ and taxes.

With the Opposition using such opportunistic and shallow attacks it will be difficult for a government to ‘get back on track’ as Gillard admitted, the reason she agreed to the removal of Rudd was she felt the Labor Party had been “a good government that had lost its way.”

Being entirely poll driven means it’s difficult to nail the Opposition down on issues. However with the there is plenty of ammunition with the range of gaffes from Abbott, Bishop, Morrison and Joyce; and the back flips and ‘direction changes’. Retrieving credibility on the greatest moral challenge will indeed be very difficult for the Government and Gillard’s call for “community consensus” in her acceptance speech would seem to indicate she is to make more of an effort to bring the electorate along on such a contentious subject. Either that or she intends to mothball the whole issue until after the next election.

The Senate continues to be a problem with Senator Fielding and the Coalition making the government’s efforts to address any issues very difficult. On climate change, they will frustrate the process and Fielding will call incessant inquiries into the science; a man truly 100 years behind the science. Abbott and co will crow about those ‘boat people’ or about the Building the Education Revolution (BER). They will avoid outlining their exact plans for industrial relations because it’s the same one as Howard’s. And will deflect questions about the details of their policies since they
have scant details to-date.

In her first public address as Prime Minister, Gillard gave a possible hint at an October election. However, with the challenges before the new leadership team getting the timing right to call an election is going to be crucial.

The times are definitely changing in Australian politics, though exactly how much policy-wise has yet to be revealed.

Alex Schlotzer is a straight talker when it comes to politics and loves to vent his spleen. Actively involved in Australian and international politics with a keen understanding of the dynamics of the political machine, Alex has a prolific online presence and has been a cyber activist for over 15 years. Regional editor of theangle.org, he can also be found at his blog and his exciting online project Australian Politics TV.

Tags: Alex Schlotzer, alp leadership, female prime ministers, julia Gillard, Kevin Rudd, labor leader, Tony Abbott