By Alex Schlotzer:

The next Victorian election is looming on the horizon and it seems a struggling Victorian Labor Government is stuck between a rock and a hard place with the electorate.

While the state budget was well received by most pundits (although this could change as more detail is revealed), this is an election year, and the government is trying to appear to be on the front foot despite a mounting number of challenges, and some reverses.

Though the federal political arena is dominating the political news coverage with Federal Labor’s popularity plummeting after a number of astounding policy backflips, this is not providing enough in the way of distraction for the Brumby government, with public health and education remaining very high on the voters’ radar as state issues.

Indeed the bizarre effort to make the public health issue a stand-off with the federal Government over the Commonwealth’s recent health takeover debate played out as one might expect. From the Victorian premier we saw chest beating, negotiations, more chest beating, more negotiations, ultimatums (and more chest beating) then everyone wins. In the final wash up, it didn’t play out that well for the Premier. The whole problem with the faux fight over public health administration and funding was that it looked and felt like it was choreographed from start to finish.

The government is also facing mounting pressure over the environment and public transport with the issues of housing affordability and road infrastructure — including planning for new suburbs — becoming growing headaches for the Brumby Government.

Indeed, the issues of the environment, climate change and public transport are proving sore points for the incumbent Labor Government and it faces losing key inner city seats; further harming the Labor brand in the eyes of voters as they watch the federal Government shelve the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme.

Brumby also faces similar pressures in regional and outer urban seats, where traffic and housing affordability are key issues. These are places at risk of falling to the Liberals, however it’s still possible for Labor to hang on to these seats.

In the Government’s favour is the fact that the Liberals have existed as a failed brand in Victoria since former Premier Jeff Kennett was spectacularly thrown out of office. They have been ineffectual as an opposition party, having often been shown up by the resurgent Greens to the extent that the party has started hi-jacking Greens motions and amendments.

It is also true to say the Liberals positions on issues are vague. They have released zero policy positions and no-one can say exactly what Ted Baillieu stands for or necessarily who he is (he’s the state Liberal opposition leader by the way). Of course, as the election year for Victoria dawned the Liberals were quick to be seen trying to make a buzz out of law and order issues. Both state rags ran with it during late January and early February, pointing to the alleged out of control CBD situation and growing concerns about violence, while ignoring the fact the state’s major and violent crimes are trending downwards; something conveniently forgotten by the mainstream media in pursuit of infotainment.

In fact the Liberals are so bereft of policy ideas that they trotted out the law and order issue to see if it would get a run. The electorate saw it for what it was and the Liberals quickly turned to something else, public transport. Here to they fail with no policy announcements or ideas and a record of voting with the government. And what’s worse is that the Nationals have an even lower public profile. The Nationals brand is pretty much neglected and regularly overlooked in the national debate.

There were some that made a range of assertions about how the Victorian election could reflect the Tasmanian balance of power election, however I discount this given the marked differences between the two states’ electoral systems and the governments in question.

But, for Labor and the Liberals the Victorian election is looming large.  The question is who can drag their carcass over the line.

Tags: Australia, john brumby, politics Victoria, ted baillieu, victorian politics