Vote. Credit: modeen/ flickr

By Alex Schlotzer:

Unlike elections being held on the east coast, the South Australian and Tasmanian elections’ campaigns are moving along at fever pitch.

D-day for each state’s Labor governments is rapidly approaching with both states heading to the polls on 20 March. There has been no end to rumours of dirty tricks campaigning and the amount of “sh!t sheets” being stuffed into voters’ letter boxes, according to analysts. The Liberals have been ineffective in their targeting and have again failed to illustrate any tangible connection with voters that aren’t from their base.

South Australia

The South Australian election is a seemingly pretty stale affair.

There has been some interesting pockets to speak about, including the drawing together of the two major parties in recent opinion polling, but otherwise it would seem that the incumbent Rann-Labor government will be returned to government. Interest will rest with the outcome in the state’s upper house, although the interesting pockets are around the controversies of the attempt to stifle commentary on the Internet; a concept also floated by Tasmania’s Bartlett-Labor government.  Rann is heavily using his social media presence, although in my humble opinion, he’s using it remarkably badly.

There has also been the controversy surrounding the state’s Attorney General and the candidate for the gamers4croyden group.  (The group is challenging the Attorney General’s seat, which is considered to be a safe Labor seat.) While this hasn’t been particularly damaging to the Labor Party’s efforts for re-election, it has become an annoying distraction for the Croyden campaign. Even the intrigue surrounding Rann and the Channel 7 defamation case, while interesting for some, hasn’t proven to be as damaging to either Rann or the Labor Party.

Despite the bleating of conservative media outlets, Rann’s Labor government looks like it will be returned though perhaps not as comfortably as Rann might like. Although it is entertaining that pundits are more frequently using the “hung parliament” line, something well repeated by Rann (and Bartlett in Tasmania), the current polling seems to indicate that the Liberals are making significant ground and could have caught the ALP by the time South Australian’s go to the polls.  However, there are still some uncertainties surrounding the Liberal Party’s agenda and there are signs of cracks in their campaign plan with some significant media c*ck-ups more recently.  These will keep the Liberals distracted.

Even now with the polls suggesting a neck and neck race, both sides are proclaiming the disadvantage. Desperation for a government never comes across well come polling day. Whether Rann and his team has the stamina to remain disciplined for the next week will be the real test. Yet as has been mentioned by some commentators and pundits the state is in party mode and not necessarily paying attention to anything election related.

For an analysis of the polls and numbers I recommend checking out Possum Pollytics, The Tally Room and Antony Green’s website.

Tasmania

For me the Tasmanian state elections are the most entertaining. There is a strong anti-Labor fervour, although as has been pointed out by some pundits, Labor was facing a similar situation in the last state elections.  While the polls indicate there is a strong possibility for a hung parliament, the undecided voters is very high. The Liberals and Labor cannot, by the numbers, form a majority government in their own right.  Each has conceded that they would be prepared to negotiate with the Tasmanian Greens about forming a minority government. Some will remember the days of the Labor-Green Accords, with Labor undermining crucial elements of the agreement.  However, since those days, the old duopoly has slashed the number of representatives despite the growth in population.

Yet, there is another factor to consider – the maturity of the Tasmanian Greens.  They have the highest vote for any of the Greens parties and have enjoyed solid representation in the Tasmanian Parliament for a couple of decades. In this time, they’ve learned some things about campaigning and doing the politics in the hallowed halls of the Tasmanian seat of power.  However, the kind of complaining that Bartlett does and his record of backing Gunns would suggest a tenuous relationship with the Greens, should a minority government eventuate.

For these kinds of reasons, and the sort of politics played out, the Tasmanian state elections are by far the more exciting of the two separate state elections. Again, I’d recommend checking out Poll Bludger, Possum Pollytics, the Tally Room and Antony Green’s website. They provide very good analyses of the polls and voting patterns; voter sentiments and commentary.

That’s my angle, but what’s yours?

Live Blog – 20 March 2010 from 6:30pm AEDT

Join theangle.org’s expert commentary team as they live blog the results from the Tasmanian and South Australian state elections. Get a reminder today.

Tags: david bartlett, isodor australian elections, mike rann, nick mckim, south australia election, tasmania election, will hodgman