Altona, Victoria. Credit: John Shadbolt

By Alex Schlotzer:

Australians will head to the polls for a federal election sometime later this year and until the exact date is to be announced decided, any number of theories and speculative guesses abound. However political junkies will also no doubt be aware that this year will also see three state elections, with South Australia and Tasmania leading the charge on March 20 and Victoria rounding out the year on November 27.

If history is any judge, all three campaigns will involve some very fierce political battles with “dirty tricks” undoubtedly featuring prominently. The use of such underhand techniques has already begun with some reports of their use in one form or another in all three states although such things are not necessarily reported through mainstream media outlets until near the end of the campaigns.

However, the good electors of the Victorian state district of Altona will be the first to head to the polls (February 13) to elect a replacement to fill the vacancy left after Lynne Kosky’s dramatic retirement from politics. And this by-election will have much hype, although anything suggesting that it will be an “early test” of the Brumby Labor government is a joke. Looking at the demographics and voting patterns of Altona District, suggests that the Labor Party will easily retain the seat. For me it’s an election and I love elections; I am a self-confessed election addict, some may say – junkie.

At the 2006 state election, the Greens vote was a little more than 10%, and there are expectations from the party that this vote may increase. The Socialist Alliance have also fielded a candidate and there are a couple of supposed “independents” although they appear to be little more than stooges for the Liberals. The two-party-preferred (2PP) vote for Labor in 2006 was roughly 71% and will probably be about the same at the conclusion of the ballot count for this by-election.

The Greens are likely to pick up the Socialist Alliance preferences and the Liberals the independents’ preferences; though there’ll be leakage all round between the parties and independents. The Greens preferences, if they can’t out last the Liberals in the ballot count, will flow to the Labor Party. As with most by-elections, I’d expect to see an even lower than normal voter turn out, which unfortunately is symptomatic of by-elections.

What makes this by-election interesting, and worth watching, is that the Liberals for the first time in nearly two election cycles have fielded a candidate in a by-election they can’t win.

A by-election worth watching? What do you think?

Live Coverage Details

theangle.org will be providing the live coverage through our Live Blogs (courtesy of Cover It Live) from 6:30pm on February 13. The live blog will have provding commentary:

• Alex Schlotzer, theangle.org’s contributing regional editor, will act as the live blog’s facilitator and moderator.

• Rich Bowden, theangle.org’s Editor in Chief, who is co-moderating the live blog

We hope to be able to add some expert and “on-the-ground” coverage on the day.

Alex Schlotzer is a straight talker when it comes to politics and loves to vent his spleen. Actively involved in Australian and international politics with a keen understanding of the dynamics of the political machine, Alex has a prolific online presence and has been a cyber activist for over 15 years. Regional editor of theangle.org, he can also be found at his blog and his exciting online project Australian Politics TV.

Tags: Alex Schlotzer, altona by election, live event coverage, politics australia