Dr Clive Hamilton. Credit: Australian Greens

By Alex Schlotzer

Okay that might be a bit presumptuous given that polls have not yet closed but that was certainly the major news that energised Green members yesterday at the close of campaigning in the seat of Higgins.  With Malcolm Mackerras predicting in his article that voters would give the nod to Greens candidate Clive Hamilton, there was a sudden last minute frantic stir in both the Liberal and Greens campaigns.

Unfortunately for the Liberals, their candidate hasn’t had the benefit of a “senior Party member”, such as the Opposition Leader, being able to support the campaign.  And as I mentioned in my last post, the very public factional warfare could very well play into the Greens’ favour. There is certainly some merit to Mackerras’ assertion that the rise of Tony “The Mad Monk” Abbott to Opposition Leader will probably not be a positive for the Liberal campaign.

Unlike similar elections to-date, there has been little mention of the so-called ‘Doctors’ wives’ vote, which had the Liberal Party strategists very nervous in the 2007 general federal election. Abbott’s a unlikeable politician, whose hard-headed and hardline approach won’t be endearing qualities for Liberal voters in Higgins.  The unwillingness of Costello’s “successor” to directly confront Higgins’ electors on the issue of climate change could add further damage for a seat that finds action on climate change a necessity.  Some electoral commentators have seemingly forgotten that even in the general election in 2007 Costello was forced to defend regularly the Liberals’ position on climate change and their version of the government’s emissions trading scheme.

Despite the candidate’s efforts to appear like she is campaigning, there appears to have been only minimal effort. Indeed the Liberals’ campaign has been run with a certain degree of arrogance; that the seat will always be returned to Liberals. With the factional warfare, the candidate has had to spend more time clarifying the leadership problems and her position in relation to the leadership.  The distractions of commenting on the leadership has meant disruptions to her campaign; more importantly, it has meant major disruptions to “staying on message.”

The Greens, by contrast, have been running a much more open and direct campaign, seeking to engage the voters. The campaign has been very focused on framing the debate around “climate change”, which is an important issue for many voters. It’s also an issue that for the ‘Doctors’ wives’ could see them shifting their votes to the Greens because of Abbott’s climate change denialism.  Of course there are lots of issues involved; but none so divisive for the Liberals electorally as climate change.

The combination of the Liberal Party’s very open and bitter factional war, with Abbott’s rise to Opposition Leader, could see the blue ribbon Liberal seat of Higgins won by the Greens (at least until the next general federal election) by the narrowest of margins.

Tags: australian politics, bradfield by-election, climate change election, costello, higgins by election, independent australian news, nelson