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Swings and roundabouts. Credit: Sarah G/flickr

By Alex Schlotzer:

Well what a whirlwind week in Australian politics that was, starting with the defection of most of Malcolm Turnbull’s frontbench and culminating in the win by Tony Abbott (by one vote) in today’s leadership spill. The tragedy (for Turnbull supporters) was that it was bound to happen as the now former federal Opposition Leader used strikingly similar rhetoric as former Prime Minister, John Howard, insisting on being blasted out rather than step down gracefully.

Blast out is precisely what right wing powerbroker Nick Minchin and his acolyte Tony Abbott did after the mass resignations last week by Liberal shadow ministers had led to open warfare between moderate and conservative camps. Ultimately successful though the Minchin/Abbott pincer movement was in deposing Turnbull over the ETS, it remains to be seen if their determination to rid the party of his leadership may have divided it for many years to come.

One of the more interesting aspects of the battle was the regular visits and phone calls by various factions to the once all-mighty John Howard. The second-most successful Liberal leader of all time has mostly gone to ground since his crushing defeat two years ago however the regular number of visitors to his door shows the Old Master still pulls a few strings in the Liberal Party.

Twitter coverage

Media coverage of the apparent disintegration of the once-proud Liberal party has been wide and varied. As well as plenty of newspaper print being spent on the accusations of betrayal and counter accusations, the relatively new media of social networking has played an important role. It was no surprise to see Liberal members have their mobiles removed from them at the party room door today so as to prevent them sending updates to their favourite journo.

Of course if you haven’t been tuned in to the Twitter fury, you’ll have read about it somewhere. It truly is an interesting discourse; lurking in the background and throwing in one’s two cents worth here and there while keeping updated in real time is a real bonus to news gathering.

Most of it of course is spur of the moment, in-the-thick-of-things-while-the-sh!t-is-hitting-the-fan, posting to a more than welcoming and blood thirsty audience of hacks, journalists, lurkers, commentators, observers and arm chair critics. However what seems to be the real thing missing in all of this is that there is no real back chatter about this among the Liberals. They like to use the # (hashtag) for Twitter searches. However there is real discipline being shown by the relevant camps; by not using Twitter to further damage an already limp party.

The future for Mal

Turnbull was a hope to match Rudd and regain some respectability in the polls for the Liberals. Julie Bishop apparently meant to square off against Labor’s Gillard is really the weak link in the chain in the Liberal’ leadership’s chain, as Bishop has shown time and again that she is no real challenge for Gillard in a political or parliamentary sense.

There are wild and unsubstantiated claims about Turnbull breaking away from the Liberal Party of Australia to form an alternative conservative party. As talk of a split heightens and people speak of the split in the Australian Labor Party in the 1950′s, this has of course brought the hapless Democratic Labor Party into focus. (Unfortunately for them they’re proving to be ineffectual as ever as the party disputes whether or not they are running an endorsed candidate in Saturday’s by-election in the seat of Higgins.)

While it is fun to speculate about the political and electoral ramifications this would have for Australian conservative politics, it’s my humble opinion that it’s not likely to eventuate.

The only real losers in all of this are the Liberal party voters. It would seem that the party they vote for is turning into an embarrassment. Taxpayers’ money is being used to fuel and tool factional warfare while urgent bills remain before the Parliament. In particular there are the government’s emissions trading scheme bills, which look set to be either deferred to next year’s autumn session or will provide a trigger for a double dissolution election.

There are swings and round-a-bouts in politics and it would seem that Turnbull is finding this out the hard way. But does he have the stomach for real politics? In short, no. Turnbull hates to lose and he doesn’t lose too often. Politics isn’t really his natural game as herding politicians isn’t like herding company boards and bankers. As with his departure from the republic movement post-referendum, he’ll be quick to resign as being on the back benches is not where he wants to be. Although I believe he’ll at least wait until the next election to resign from politics.

Alex Schlotzer is a straight talker when it comes to politics and loves to vent his spleen. He is actively involved in Australian and international politics with a keen understanding of the dynamics of the political machine. Alex has a prolific online presence and has been a cyber activist for over 15 years. He can also be found at his blog and his exciting online project Australian Politics TV.

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