House of Representatives, Parliament House, Canberra

By Simon Hukin:

After Malcolm Turnbull’s precipitate booting on Monday, where will he go? What will he do? Will he follow his predecessor Brendan Nelson, and retire, or will he soldier on – a pariah among his comrades?

There is another option. Mr Turnbull, having shown a great degree of commitment to policy developed on the other side of the chamber, could up sticks and join the ALP. Union influences aside, his ideological views make him suitable for membership in the Right and even pragmatic Left factions of Labor. The PM would, I have no doubt, be glad to have Mr Turnbull as a member of his team. After all, he is highly intelligent and articulate, his social positions are fairly much in line with those of the conservative wing of the ALP, and his economic outlook is as middle of the road as they come.

While he may be vilified by his former colleagues as a traitor, it seems to me he’d merely be returning the favour. After the desertion of half his front bench, would it truly be a crime if Uncle Mal switched sides? Penny Wong and Julia Gillard have shown more loyalty and compassion to him in recent days than all the Liberal backbenchers combined.

Whoever assumes the leadership, Malcolm is going to be severely lacking in friends on his side of the chamber. As a mate from across the ideological divide, I would quite happily extend the hand of friendship (holding a stiff drink) to him. The Parliament has quite enough Wilson Tuckeys and even enough Nick Minchins. It’d be a shame to see a man of Malcolm’s talents go to waste.

There is something of a precedent for Turnbull crossing the floor for good. According to a variety of sources he

Opp. Leader Malcolm Turnbull. Credit: Adam Carr.

courted the ALP and was courted in return. As a pragmatist and a centrist, abandoning your party does not necessarily mean abandoning ideals. Turnbull is a true liberal, and has been forced to deal with a party full of conservatives.

With the recent announcement of the Hockey/Dutton dream-team, there’s no one left for Mr Turnbull to turn to. Even his beloved deputy, Julie Bishop, has been distancing herself. The wets are like rats leaving a sinking ship. However, there remains a vestige of support for him in the Parliament; Julia Gillard today commended Mr Turnbull for his dedication, saying he “has shown great courage and great determination to deliver this change in the nation’s interest.”

The strong likelihood is that Turnbull will be ousted as leader. Punters claim the odds for his re-election are out to the $3.50 mark signalling, according to CEO of Sportingbet Australia Mark Sullivan, ‘‘a devastating judgement by punters that is sure to compound his current woes.’’

In terms of the betting markets, punters are throwing their money behind Joe Hockey, with odds as short as $1.80, while odds for Tony Abbott are out at $2.75. ‘‘Over the last six months, Hockey has been paying upwards of $3 for most of the time as he has not been keen to make a grab at the leadership,’’ Mr Sullivan said. ‘‘Now punters are getting behind him as it seems that Turnbull’s day is done.’’ It is. Other leadership contenders in the Sportingbet Australia market are Andrew Robb at odds of $17, and Peter Dutton and Julie Bishop both at $21 and behind ‘‘any other’’ at $7.

Lacking loyalty, and even a front-bench, Mr Turnbull’s political future is bleak. But it is good to know that he is willing to go down as a martyr; a man willing to die for Labor’s cause. Having previously staked his leadership on the issue of climate change, declaring he would not lead a party that was not as committed to tackling it as he was, he should consider moving over to a party that is. He should know there will always be a seat waiting.

Simon Hukin is a student at the Australian National University, General Secretary of the Western Australian Secondary Students’ Association, peripatetic music teacher and general curmudgeon. He is heavily involved in politics and the union movement.

Tags: australian politics, julia Gillard, liberal australia, malcolm turnbull leadership, turnbull frontbench, turnbull labor