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Opp. Leader Malcolm Turnbull. Credit: Adam Carr.

By Simon Hukin

The ire raised by Mr Turnbull’s recent decisions regarding the CPRS legislation has brought about some of the most bizarre scenes in Australia’s political history. Following his unilateral announcement late on Wednesday that he was the leader, and the party was largely in support of the passage of the amended emissions trading scheme legislation, there has been a mass exodus of key shadow cabinet figures.

Beginning with three Senate Parliamentary Secretaries (Brett Mason, Mitch Fifield and Matthias Cormann) followed by Liberal Godfather Nick Minchin and the “Mad Monk” Tony Abbott, Sophie Mirabella, Eric Abetz, Stephen Parry and Tony Smith, the ranks of overt dissenters have swelled alarmingly. No longer is crossing the floor the sole province of loons like Wilson Tuckey; with Nick Minchin leading the way most of the Liberals in the Senate are likely to follow.

However, if the final vote is held today – something looking increasingly unlikely thanks to Minchin’s machinations – the ALP will win. They simply have the numbers locked in. After all, thanks to their landslide election victory they only need seven votes to carry the floor. The seven are likely to come from the ranks of the wets – with a previously recalcitrant Bill Heffernan thrown in for good measure. Liberal Senators likely to vote with the government include key members of Shadow Cabinet George Brandis, and Helen Coonan, and a number of largely unknown backbenchers; Payne, Johnston, Troeth, Birmingham, Trood, Boyce, and the double-barrelled Fierravanti-Wells.

The real interest, of course, lies in the leadership contention. Malcolm’s on the way out – no matter how loudly or often he claims he’s the leader. His possible replacements are mostly from the right – after the debacle of the successive wet leaderships (both of which have set new records for low popularity in the polls) they are fed up. It’s looking likely that an all-right leadership team will emerge to challenge Turnbull and Bishop. The top tips are Abbott or Andrews for leader, with possibilities for deputy ranging from the lefty Tony Smith who has been performing well of late, to Andrew Robb, through to the rank outsider Sharman Stone. It’s obvious no one in the left wants to be leader; Hockey has disavowed any intention of running if Turnbull runs (which he must), Pyne is unelectable and knows it, and Julie Bishop has proved herself incapable through her many embarrassing gaffs.

Tony Abbott. Credit:dimensional dan/flickr

An all-right leadership under Abbott, as tipped by insider Peter van Onselen, would be interesting. In his book he acknowledged a need to reform the party, and this could be his chance. However, anyone entering the leadership faces huge challenges reconciling the competing interests of the ultra-conservatives led by pragmatic mob-boss Minchin and the moderate left of Turnbull, Hockey and Pyne. At present the party is split down the middle, and it’s going to take more than araldite to fill up the cracks. Kevin Andrews as leader would be of far less value to the party. He has neither the strength of character nor the firmness of vision to lead such a disparate and vicious bunch. His election would mark a return to the calamitous policies of the Howard government, and would herald electoral evisceration.

Of course, after the events of this week it is increasingly unlikely the Party could be unified under any leader, and there is no doubt it will limp home to a poor second at the next election. Liberal members may constantly criticise the ALP tradition of binding votes on policy, but at least the ALP has a mechanism for ensuring the appearance of unity and solidarity. Without it, the Liberal Party is lost. The Nationals, on the other hand are likely to increase their vote; strongly committed and united as they have proven themselves. The Liberal Party has both much to fear and much to learn from the continued rise of their coalition partners. A united National Party under Barnaby Joyce would be a fearsome thing indeed.

Simon Hukin is a student at the Australian National University, General Secretary of the Western Australian Secondary Students’ Association, peripatetic music teacher and general curmudgeon. He is heavily involved in politics and the union movement.