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Opp. Leader Malcolm Turnbull. Credit: Adam Carr.

By Alex Schlotzer:

The Liberal Party of Australia is experiencing a significant power shift in its state branches with some surprising results having federal consequences.

The embarrassing sight (for the Liberals) of Federal frontbencher and rising star Peter Dutton losing in a recent pre-selection for the safe Liberal Queensland seat of McPherson, after his own seat of Dickson became marginal after a redistribution, is not entirely surprising given the animosity of the rank and file members of the electorate in which he was seeking pre-selection.

The strongly independent pre selectors resented the federal Liberal party’s effort to “parachute” in a favoured son and  Mr Dutton was therefore off to a bad start in a preselection he would have been battling to have the numbers to win anyway. This state of affairs came about despite the highest of endorsements from the leadership of the Liberal Party.

Indeed the spate of retirement announcements from the Opposition has left those Liberal powerbrokers pondering as the Liberal party seems to be imploding while exploding simultaneously.

The Liberal Party is Australia’s main conservative party which lost (in Coalition with the Nationals) government at the last general election in 2007. Since losing that election in a landslide, after over a decade in power under John Howard, the Liberal Party has suffered other setbacks including burning through leaders and having little impact – until the recent asylum seeker affair – on any of Australia’s major opinion polls.

The Rudd Labor government continues to have a very high level of popularity, while the Liberal Party appears incapable of focusing on presenting a viable alternative government.  The Opposition’s inability to form a coherent policy platform is most noticeable in the division in the party over the most significant hurdle facing the Liberal Party; the upcoming vote on the government’s emissions trading scheme (ETS).

Double Dissolution?

This is a divisive issue on which Malcolm Turnbull, Leader of the Opposition and Liberal Party, has staked his leadership and the issue could well force a double dissolution election.

Of course this is Canberra and there are already any number of rumours circulating.  It hasn’t helped Turnbull that his lieutenants are behaving in the same kind of way one would expect from those gathering support to mount a coup or stage a mutiny.

However, while much of the commentary (most of it based on leaked information) about the October 18 Liberal party room meeting was focused on Turnbull’s leadership, the truth is that this particular meeting was entirely about the ETS  amendments the Opposition will use to negotiate with the Government.

In the meantime the dithering and the lack of a single position on climate change from the Opposition has allowed the government to make further inroads politically with its own climate change agenda, albeit a policy which seems to significantly benefit the heaviest polluting industries.

Most recently the aim of the Government has been to encourage division in the Coalition over whether or not to negotiate with the Government on the proposed 12 amendments to the emissions trading scheme.

The Coalition seems to be more rocked with an internal debate about the party’s future and climate change is providing a catalyst for that debate. However, there has been an odd twist with the Government, through Climate Change Minister Penny Wong, who has indicated a preparedness to wait until the new year (after the Copenhagen summit) before putting the ETS legislation to a vote. And this has been something the Coalition, and even some within the ALP, has regularly pushed for with little result.

Seemingly the government is not prepared to negotiate at all with the Australian Greens or the South Australian independent Senator, Nick Xenophon.  The government has found itself compelled to maintain negotiations with the Coalition given their unwillingness to contemplate opening a dialogue with the Greens.  The coal lobby and the uranium lobby are stepping up their greenwash as the ETS debate heats up for the current session of parliament.

Does this mean that the government could end up in a merry little dance with the Liberals under the pre-text of ’seeking a bi-partisan approach to addressing climate change’? This could be difficult to do now the Greens have officially unveiled their alternative legislation. The Greens’ legislative package being launched ahead of the Coalition’s also casts doubts on the their ability to be an alternative government; or at least an effective opposition.

It could be well argued that the government’s changing position to more vigorously incorporate the agenda of the big polluters is a way of driving a wedge between the Liberal Party and their corporate backers.

The sands of Australian politics have been shifting for a while now, with the demise of the Australian Democrats and the rise of the Australian Greens, but the climate change debate has certainly acted as a catalyst for the quickening of this process.

While the public may be right in assuming it’s just business as usual as the 2 old political parties continue to stall, the reality is that the political sands are shifting quickly and the parties that responds the faster will be so much the stronger at the next election.

By Alex Schlotzer: Interested in writing on this or another category for theangle.org? Contact us via our online form.

Alex Schlotzer is a straight talker when it comes to politics and loves to vent his spleen. He is actively involved in Australian and international politics with a keen understanding of the dynamics of the political machine. Alex has a prolific online presence and has been a cyber activist for over 15 years. He can also be found at his blog and his exciting online project Australian Politics TV.