SBY & President George Bush, APEC 2004. Credit: White House/Eric Draper

Just a few months after Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s re-election for a second term, his administration is hardly off to a flyer with the country struck by yet more natural disasters. Yudhoyono (better known as SBY) is also being entangled in a crisis of his own making – agreeing to become involved in Australia’s disgraceful policies towards asylum seekers.

The former military officer won the July presidential election at a canter. Election experts had tipped a closer race, with some observers quoting early opinion polling as saying a run-off election would be needed. However good campaigning by the SBY team and a strong popular vote meant this was not to eventuate.

SBY’s report card for his first term though was mixed. While his government was genuine in working hard at tackling corruption, collusion and nepotism – what is known locally as korupsi, kolusi and nepotisme or KKN – his efforts to reform Indonesia’s political and corporate structures were somewhat thwarted by nature and circumstance in his first term.

To its credit his government has been trying to make democracy more transparent (by all accounts these were the most peaceful and democratic presidential elections to-date) however given the sheer size of the nation with Indonesia being an archipelago of thousands of islands, there was always going to be many examples of KKN and complete eradication of this public menace was never going to happen.

While his political detractors used these examples as ammunition to discredit the Government, they had little impact on the final election outcome.

However, the question remains; will he be able to manage the continuing natural disasters befalling the nation?

Boxing Day Tsunami

From the beginning of his first term, soon after his inauguration as President, Yudhoyono was tested with the earthquake and subsequent Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004. Indonesia’s westernmost province of Aceh was the worst hit, with an estimated 230,000 people killed by the disaster and about 500,000 left homeless.

Aftermath of the Boxing Day Tsunami 2004. Credit: US Federal Government

This tragedy seemed to set the pattern for SBY’s first term. There were numerous earthquakes, mudslides, and floods throughout the president’s early years as leader, each of them taking their toll socially, economically and environmentally.

SBY and his young administration were thrown into making vital decisions on issues such as the provision of aid needed for survivors and support for people to rebuild their lives; homes, schools and businesses.  And unfortunately, nature seems to be again conspiring against SBY as he begins his second term with more earthquakes, mudslides and floods. The current spate of natural disasters is compounding the situation for an already disaster-swamped nation.

Undoubtedly, there will be attempts by the various political factions to make political life difficult for SBY in his second term.  The ongoing natural crises do mean though that SBY can legitimately deploy the nation’s armed forces to help with aid and rescue efforts.

There will be those that will decry his handling of other political (West Papua) and environmental (Sumatra) hot spots. This criticism includes internal and factional criticism over appearing to be bowing to the ‘West’s pressure’ on human rights abuse or environmental abuses with deforestation.

On top of all of this, Australia’s policies toward asylum seekers have created an additional unnecessary distraction from SBY’s main game; perbaikan politik, hukum dan keuangan (political, legal and financial reforms).  There are many who have complained about SBY being too “pro-Australia”. And when there is too much time for factions to criticise, then there’s time to consider alternative presidents.

There will be some testing times as he also needs to keep an eye on the wranglings of the legislators (individuals and factions) and senior bureaucrats.

If the reforms do not continue and the population is forced to pay soaring prices for the basics (kerosene, petrol, oil, rice etc) further delays to the main game can ensue as ‘law and order’ is restored. SBY is no fool and obviously knows it’s a stellar balancing act to perform.

But with the main game seemingly dis-jointed (SBY liked to shuffle the cabinet in his first term for factional purposes) and regular natural disasters needing urgent attention, does he have the staying power? Can he keep pursuing political, legal and financial reforms and help further diminish the propensity for corruption, collusion and nepotism?

Strangely it could be the very transparency he’s worked for that could see SBY losing the next presidential election; for no other reasons than ‘he’s had his go’, or ‘he didn’t do enough to tackle corruption (collusion and/or nepotism)’.  However the fear of the return of dictators, genuine and the disingenuous, could also be another very compelling reason for Indonesians to vote for someone else next time.

Time is ticking.

By Alex Schlotzer: Interested in writing on this or another category for theangle.org? Contact us via our online form.

Alex Schlotzer is a straight talker when it comes to politics and loves to vent his spleen.  He is actively involved in Australian and international politics with a keen understanding of the dynamics of the political machine. Alex has a prolific online presence and has been a cyber activist for over 15 years. He can also be found at his blog and his exciting online project Australian Politics TV.

Tags: aceh, boxing day tsunami, Indonesia, natural disaster, sby, susilo bambang yudhoyono