theangle.org

Dr Clive Hamilton. Credit Australian Greens

By Rich Bowden:

Over the next month, theangle.org will be taking an in-depth look at the two by-election seats of Bradfield, on Sydney’s north shore and Higgins, on the outskirts of Melbourne.

Firstly Higgins, which was declared vacant after high profile Liberal Peter Costello announced his retirement from federal politics earlier this year. Costello stayed long enough to ensure his preferred candidate – Kelly O’Dwyer, a former staffer for the former Treasurer – won the preselection for the supposed blue ribbon seat (more on that later).

With Labor expected not to contest the seat, which hasn’t passed out of Liberal hands since its creation in 1949, all eyes are on the clash between the favoured Liberal O’Dwyer and the high profile author and climate expert Clive Hamilton, who is contesting the seat on behalf of the Greens.

Higgins covers much of the inner south-east suburbia of Melbourne, which “…include South Yarra, Prahran, Toorak, Malvern and Glen Iris,” explains political commentator Ben Raue at his excellent political site The Tally Room.

“…Higgins covers the entirety of the safe Liberal state seat of Malvern. It also covers about half of the marginal [Australian Labor Party] seat of Prahran. Higgins also covers parts of three other seats: marginal ALP Burwood, safe Liberal Hawthorn and safe ALP Oakleigh,” he adds.

The general consensus seems to be that the seat is a traditional blue ribbon Liberal stronghold with the only question being whether or not this will be considered a referendum on Liberal leader Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership or if local issues will dominate. However this cut-and-dried view is questioned by theangle.org’s political editor Alex Schlotzer.

Writing in his blog, Alex says though the numbers suggest an easy win for the Liberals, history has shown that strange results happen in by elections.

“Looking at the numbers, Costello won the seat in the 2007 federal election (an easy win: 57 -43),” says Alex. “It could normally be said that a cool 7 point margin is a safe seat however, this is a by-election. And like all by-elections this one will also be peculiar to local issues and tensions.”

He continues: “It could also be said that Costello’s personal voter base would be less inclined to vote for the “replacement” regardless of whether Costello “anointed” her or not. His personal voter base could be as much as 2% thereby dwindling the margin to 5 points. And given that it’s a by-election there will be fewer candidates to provide preferences to the Liberal Party,” he explains.

With the ALP expected not to participate, Alex says the Greens could improve on their previous strong showing.

“The Australian Greens polled 10.75% in the last election. If this vote holds up it could provide a close-ish race.  There is the likelihood of a significant proportion of ALP voters voting Greens and the attraction Clive Hamilton provides for small “l” Liberal Party voters, which could put the Greens within very close range of winning the seat.”

The by election will be held on December 5, join us at theangle.org’s Live Events special coverage of the result. Get your email reminder for “The By-election Double-Header” live blog Dec 5 from 7pm.